2008 the year of the Flu Pandemic?

I have been following the H5N1 virus for a while now.

Since the year 2003, the bird flu virus repeatedly seems to appeare out of no where, for no visible reason, mostly in a remote (from the point of view of the west) country in the far east and then, after a short period of local panic, the virus disappears, again for no provable reason.

We have gotten used to this peak-a-boo game, with the deadliest of potential dangers to mankind to such an extent, that there are “journalists” taking bets against the chance of a pandemic-in-our-time.

There are others who think that bird flu is a social network tool and have regular get together shindings and a jolly good knees-up.

This year is different however.

The year started with the H5N1 virus ruling the roost, so to speak, in 10 countries just in the first 15 days of the year!

This time the outbreaks of the virus seem to be spreading much faster over a much wider area.

Portugal, Dominica, Israel, Benin, Vietnam, China, West Bengal in India, Bangladesh and Myanmar have all been hit by outbreaks.

On Wednesday, a fourth swan died of the H5N1 virus in the Abbotsbury reserve in Dorset, southern England.

So can this be the year that the dreaded pandemic visits mankind once again?

With the US Presidential election in full swing, will any one pay attention to what could be a vast shadow creeping silently over all of us?

Come to think of it, did any of the Presidential Candidates mention bird flu in any of the debates?

Is it even politically correct to mention the bird flu virus these days?

I mean would the color of the poultry and the birds (other than the totally white British swans) come into play?

Impact of Bird-Flu on the Map of Europe

The Impact of Bird-Flu on the Map of Europe

                                                               “Bird Flu Map”
 Thanks for the above to “Addshots”

Sources:

http://addshots.blogspot.com/2007/12/bbc-world-maps.html

www.birdflubreakingnews.com

                                                                  

Four Million French could get Flu this winter

Here is a story (via KUNA) that could have Michael Fumento, the “anti alarmist journalist” fuming away at the above mega alarmist headline from France. 

The news item sounds alarming, but apparently it also happens to be a fact!

The French daily “Liberation” quoted health sources as saying, in its edition published on Tuesday, that this years the Flu outbreak could take on “pandemic” proportions due to climatic factors and the strain of virus expected to hit the country.

Apparently, due to the effect of the “El Nino” climate system will provide either neutral or cold conditions in France during the above period and the range of flu cases could be between 3.2 million and 4.7 million, with a median of four million.

Flu specialists in France told the newspaper that predictions indicate that the flu will be the same as the one that hit Australia in July and August and it could hit France between October 2007 and the beginning of 2008.

France will begin selling vaccines against the flu on September 28 and these are available free of charge for children and elderly people, while others must pay for inoculation.

Last year, some two million people contracted the flu in France.

  

Sources:

http://www.liberation.fr/

www.birdflubreakingnews.com

www.un-influenza.org/fra

Impressive Anti Bird-Flu effort from The Government of India.

You have to admire the current efforts that the Government of India is apparently putting in to the control of the recently discovered Bird-Flu virus in Manipur, in the North East of the country.

                                              

                                                                              Sh. Sharad Pawar 
                                                                           Federal agriculture minister

After having witnessed luke warm reaction to the repeated outbreaks in Indonesia, Bangladesh, Myanmar and even France, the anti Bird-Flu measures taken by the Indian Central and State Governments are more than a little impressive.

Here is a report from the Press Information Bureau of the Government of India:

Over 680 health personnel, led by a Central Rapid Response Team, have conducted house-to-house active surveillance in the effected area.                                                                                                   

Out of the 45,032 houses surveyed, 935 were having backyard poultry. A total of 2,35,161 persons were covered.

163 Fever/ Acute upper respiratory Tract infection cases were found.

Four children had handled either dead or sick bird.

These cases are being monitored.

The isolation ward in J.N. Hospital, Imphal is ready to receive patients.

Two ventilators have been installed to provide critical care. This is in addition to the critical care facilities available at Regional Institute of Medical Sciences, Imphal.

Adequate supply of logistics [Tamiflu, N-95 masks and personal protective gears] have been made available to the State Government.

The situation is being closely monitored. As of now, there is no suspected human cases of Avian Influenza.
 

Pregnant Vietnamese Woman dies of Bird-Flu in a “Bird-Flu-Free Province”.

After repeatedly declaring many of its provinces free of Bird-flu, the Government of Vietnam has been forced to admit that H5N1 had been found in some of the Bird-Flu-free provinces.

A Country or a province in a Country is declared bird flu-free after it goes 21 consecutive days without a new case, according to the ministry.

Last week the Government of Vietnam finally informed the global community of nations, that “only three provinces are still plagued by bird flu – Dien Bien in the north, Quang Binh in the center and Dong Thap in the Mekong Delta region.”

That was of course before Bird flu has killed a Vietnamese woman who was seven months pregnant, who died in Ha Tay one of the Bird-flu-Free provinces!

She died in the Bach Mai hospital in Hanoi after being admitted from a farm in the northern province of Ha Tay, the largest poultry supplier to the country’s capital.

A doctor in Ha Tay province says there are no bird flu outbreaks in the area where she lived.

Her death brings the death toll in the country to three in less than two months.

Two people — a 20-year-old man and a 28-year-old woman — died in June of avian influenza, the first fatalities announced since November 2005.

Since May, six human cases have been reported here, three of them fatal.

This entire Bird-Flu-free and not Bird-flu-free drama has been played out by the Vietnamese Government, as if it was a Monty Python sketch.

(The following may not have taken place exactly as described below,  but as Monty Python could well have plated it. The overall effect would be the same though.)

“We have got another one!” The  Big Vietnemese Government Boss would shout “From today, at 3 PM exactly, Province number 9 is Bird-Flu-Free!”

A little later, some one would hesitantly whisper “ Sir, Bird-Flu has been found again in the province number 9″

“What! Number 9 again?”  the Big Boss official would thunder, “OK then, the ### Number 9 Province is NOT Bird-Flu-Free at this time”

“Mind you, the province number 9 is free of TB, Cholera and Malaria and many other deadly deceases. It just has a little bit of Bird-flu at this time”

And so on.

It was almost funny to see a Government behave in that way.

I say funny, but you know what I mean.

As I have been saying in this blog for a while, the World Governing bodies such as WHO were apparently OK with this nutty rule of declaring a country free of Bird-Flu, if no new cases were found for a period of 21 days.

Even worse is the rule of declaring a part of a country, such as a province to be bird flu free, if there have been no new cases of the H5N1 found in that particular province.

I ask you, since there are no custom checks or travel restrictions between provinces, how can a province be guaranteed to be free of infection, if the bordering province has H5N1 in its poultry and more importantly, in its wild birds?

The WHO folks have not replied to repeated requests for an explanation for their silence/acquiescence with this less than honest practice.

I had requested a comment from what I consider to be the two top blogs in this subject area, Effect Measure and H5N1 Croftsblogs, to comment on this mad situation.

Did not get a response from Effect Mesure.

Crawford Kilian of the H5N1 did reply.

He is a kind soul and a gentle one at that.

So while he seemed to be able to see the basic problem with the 21 day rule, he did not use his understated, but universally acknowledged authority in any way, to put pressure on the related institutions to rectify or at the very least re examine the this situation.

I would like to ask WHO and all of the great and powerful people, who had such a good time at the Pandemic flu SUMMIT, to re examine the 21 day rule for a country to be declared free of Bird-flu.

More importantly the option to declare part of a country free of Bird-flu needs to be urgently revisited.

 

Deadly Bird-Flu H5N1 Strain returns to France.

On Sunday night, the dreaded Bird-Flu Virus appeared in France again.

Two swans were found dead Sunday night not far from the location where three swans were killed by the H5N1 virus earlier this month.

The swans were found in a lake at Diane Capelle, in the Moselle region, 9 kilometres from where three swans died of bird flu in early July.

Three swans were killed by the H5N1 strain in Moselle at the start of July – the first such outbreak in France in more than a year.

The French government subsequently raised its alert level to “high”, meaning that birds and poultry in mainland France have had to be locked up or protected by nets to avoid all contact with wild birds.

Moselle’s prefecture extended measures to protect domestic fowl from wild birds that had been put in place after the first case of swan deaths, the statement said.

A wild bird in eastern Germany tested positive for the disease this month. Last month, several wild birds in neighboring Bavaria and Saxony also tested positive.

The H5N1 strain has been found in poultry farms in three other EU countries this year: Hungary, Britain and the Czech Republic.

News Sources:

http://english.pravda.ru/news/world/31-07-2007/95476-bird_flu-0

http://www.cecu.de/633+M5a89c219dc9.html

India Prepares for the Bird-Flu as the Lab Results are delayed.

Konsam Gopal of the State Veterinary Department in Imphal can not say as to why the expected test results for the tissue samples from the dead poultry have not arrived in Imphal.

The eagerly awaited test results of the sera samples from the dead birds, including nasal fluid and cloacal samples which were sent to a Bhopal laboratory to be tested for among other things, the H5N1 virus had been expected today.

The Government has however decided to take no chances and has started to discuss an action plan, similar to the one followed in Maharastra, during the outbreak of avian influenza there.

In an official meeting held today at State Guest House the Director of the State Veterinary Department, Th Dorendra in the chair made serious deliberations to take up necessary action plans in case the results of the laboratory test at Bhopal turn out to be positive for the H5N1 virus.

Of Bird-Flu, Pigs, Cats, Dogs, Shrews, and Tigers.

Crawford Kilian’s H5N1 Croftsblogs and the Effect Measure are two of my favourite sounding boards, for all matters regarding the Bird-Flu virus.

Refreshingly, almost all of the posts as well as the comments of the visitors to these two sites are well thought out and reasonable and even though the boffins on the Effect Measure do have their shin dings every now and then, it is almost always based on facts and not fiction.

Of course there are exceptions.

So as I was going through the Effect Measure blog today about the really interesting problem of the apparently invisible source of the H5N1 virus that seems to appear out of no where, causes a certain number of human infections and then promptly vanishes as quietly as it had arrived.

I was impressed with the bit at the end of the post saying:

“Maybe it’s not true that almost all cases are from infected birds. Maybe there are other reservoirs in the environment, animate or inanimate. There is some equivocal data from feral cats. What else? There has been very little systematic surveillance of wildlife other than birds for infection with this virus. Maybe it’s time to do it. Just a thought.”

Revere, I believe that you are absolutely correct.

This is exactly the conclusion that I have arrived at after monitoring the Bird-Flu saga over the last 3 years. 

It is true that every now and then there is a small “cluster” of Bird-Flu fatalities resulting in the repeat of the banner headlines in the main line media as well as in the flubie blogs declaring a mutation of the virus enabling it to be able to jump the species barrier from birds to humans.

If you examine all the statements closely however, you will find that there was never a definite positive confirmation of a human to human infection at any of these clusters.

Instead, there is always a “negative proof” (such as there were no birds near the victim) provided for the perceived  human to human infection of the virus.

There is ample proof on the other hand, of other reservoirs of the H5N1in the environment.

The H5N1 has infected not only birds and humans, but also many other mammals over the last few years.

The H5N1 has been found in creatures, ranging from shrews, pigs, cats, dogs to even tigers and leopards!

  

See: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/entrez?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=15663858

(Moreover, a close look through the very large archived data, comprising of Bird-Flu News as well as Blogs at the birdflubreakingnews.com, will show that these non-bird-H5N1 cases have been more frequent than is realised by most of us.)

I have lived in South East Asia for a while and can tell you that the flocks of poultry are not the only form of life in constant and close contact with humans in the rural settings in that area.

So I thought that the post by Revere was really informative.

A responding comment from Sigrid van Dort of Holland was also very interesting.

He is from the why-panic-about-the-bird-flu camp and presents fairly reasonable arguments for the same.

I think that he is wrong about many things but his posts are worth reading.

But then, along came JOHN, the exception that I was talking about.

There was this post that began with the very firm and apparently absolutely true statement:

“It has already been established that the virus has spread from person to person.” said John, adding that “The death rate is extremely high”. 

“The real problem arises if it mutates into a form that spreads more easily.” John informed us, “Some think this is just a matter of time, given the nature of flu viruses.” he said, sounding now very much like the phseodo bird flu site that are really pointers to a bird flu related product for sale.

Sure enough in the next line John invited us all to go to his site where he is offering all kinds of goodies, including a free guide to the Pandemic Bird Flu! John, I would like to respectfully suggestt that even though there is nothing at all wrong in trying to promote any products, could I please persuade you not to peddle your products at this blog, as there is very little chance of any one here receiving the undoubted benefits of the said products. 

Here are links to two of the best Bird-flu related sites:

http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2007/07/where_in_the_world_is_the_h5n1.php

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2007/07/away-one-more-t.html

Bird-Flu inflicted Vietnam has got to be kidding us all!

Vietnam is “havin a laugh” as the Brits would put it!

One of the facts about the current Bird-Flu outbreaks in an increasing number of countries is so weird and dangerous, that if it were to be explained to the average man on the street, it would not be believed!

As per World Health Organisation approved rules, a country afflicted with the most infectious and virulent strain of the Bird-Flu virus, can declare it self “Free of Bird-Flu”, if no cases of the Bird-Flu appear for 21 successive days.

Think of South Africa, declaring itself “free of HIV” after 21 successive days without a new case of the AIDS!

What is more, a country can even declare one of it´s provinces “Free of Bird-Flu”, if there have been no fresh cases of the H5N1 for 21 days in that province.

It is like saying that even though I still have Malaria, I have had no problems with my right leg for a while now, therefore my right leg is free of Malaria!         

This entire drama is played by the Governments of the effected countries, due to the pressure from the  local tourism and the commercial sectors.

Obviously, a country which has it´s birds and even it´s people dropping dead from the Bird-Flu virus, is not the most desirable destination for the visitors from other countries.  

Equally important is the fact that no country wants to import poultry, eggs and other related products from a Bird-Flu inflicted country.

As a case in point, today, the 10th of July 2007, Egypt banned all poultry imports from France and Germany after the potentially fatal H5N1 strain of bird flu was discovered in birds in those countries.

A ban of import of poultry from an infected country can have a devastating effect  on       it´s entire poultry industry and so the Government comes under tremendous pressure to declare the country free of the virus as quickly as possible.

There have been cases in authoritarian countries like China and Iran of total denial of the presence of the virus, even though various branches of the Government of each country had made statements to the contrary.

Other countries such as Indonesia, have made it extremely hard for the International press to obtain any information what so ever regarding the continuing outbreaks of the H5N1, in the Poultry, in other animals as well as in the humans.

It is almost a simple case of deception by the Governments of these countries.

They are trying to say to the world community, that their country is safe to visit and to import poultry and related products from.

At best this practice would expose the International community to unnecessary risk. 

At worse, well……….  

The most amazing part of this saga is the apparent acquiescence of the WHO in it´s approval of this dangerous practice.

The declaration today, from Vietnam (which has been declaring its Bird-Flu localities one after the other as the “regulation” 21 days period passes without an outbreak) would be funny, if it were not so very dangerous for us all.

Talking about Ninh Binh, one of its provinces infected with the Bird-Flu virus, the Veterinary Department stated, “It was regrettable for Ninh Binh when two new outbreaks occurred on July 9 just when the 21 day period was about to end”

Come off it Vietnam, you have got to be pulling our collective leg!

Here is a link to the news item from The Vietnam News Agency- 

http://www.vnagency.com.vn/Home/EN/tabid/119/itemid/203723/Default.aspx

Dutch Dogs sniff out Bird-Flu at the Airport

The Dutch ministry of finance, which controls the customs service, said in a statement that special sniffer dogs are checking flights from countries where the bird flu virus has been found such as China, Thailand, Egypt, Russia and Turkey,

They are trained to sniff out all kinds of poultry — alive or dead –, feathers and eggs.

The dogs have been working on Schiphol airport since May this year.

In Europe, in addition to the Dutch, only the Czech customs are working with specialized bird flu dogs, the authorities here said.

According to the customs service this year they have already confiscated 1,626 kilos of prepared poultry meat, 203 kilos of raw poultry meat and 245 eggs.  Here is a link to the news item:http://www.physorg.com/news103029346.html

The Brits Ban French Pigeon Racing. Tour de France will still go on though!

The Brits Ban French Pigeon Racing. Tour de France will still go on though!

International pigeon racing from continental Europe to Britain has been banned after H5N1 was discovered in wild birds in France, Chief Veterinary Officer Debby Reynolds from the Environment Agency said. Domestic racing will be allowed to continue, she said.But racing from continental mainland Europe, including the Channel Islands, has been banned as a precautionary measure.

Ms Reynolds, who is not a relation of the famous Hollywood actress, said: “Given the current period of uncertainty about avian influenza in Europe and the possibility that further spread may occur, a precautionary approach is being taken based on ornithological and veterinary advice.”

France confirmed on Thursday that three swans found dead in eastern France had been killed by the H5N1 bird flu virus.

It is believed however that Tour de France, the famous cycle race, which is expected to start its first lap from the UK on Sunday the 8th of July 2007, will still be allowed to go on as planned.

Here is a link to the news item from Javno:

http://www.javno.com/en/world/clanak.php?id=60108

Dutch Poultry ordered indoors as bird flu spreads

Dutch commercial poultry keepers have been ordered to keep their birds indoors,

after a dangerous strain of bird flu was found in three dead swans in northern France.

Birds have also died of the H5N1 variant in the Czech Republic and Germany.

‘There is no reason to panic but it is worrying that more cases have been found,’

 said Ben Dullaert of the meat marketing board PVE. ‘Metz-Nancy is not very far away,’ pointed out. 

Here is a link to the news item from  © DutchNews.nl  06-07-2007:

http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2007/07/poultry_ordered_indoors_as_bir.php

“Still Life with Poultry,” by the Dutch artist Frans Snyders, painted in 1614.

FAF Keeping the nightmare of Bird-Flu alive – British Medical Journal

Tony Delamothe, the deputy editor of the British Medical Journal (helping doctors make better decisions) is an honorable man.

He does not, I believe, wish to create a false sense of complacency in the minds of the public and more importantly in the minds of the various Governments around the world. (it takes very little, for the authorities to find alternative uses for any funds earmarked for the prevention and/or management of any Bird-flu outbreaks!)

So it was a bit strange to see the article in the esteemed British Medical Journal, discussing the “small group of people” those who promote avian flu as something that remains an urgent concern, working assiduously at “keeping the nightmare alive”.

Here is an excerpt:

“Somewhere, I imagine, there’s a small group of people proud to be counted among the Friends of Avian Flu, or FAF for short.

I suspect they have a catchy mission statement, such as “Keeping the nightmare alive,” and lapel badges of vaguely bird-like shape.

Their challenge is to keep bird flu forever in the public eye. This should be getting harder, as influenza H5N1 is proving particularly resistant to undergoing the killer mutation that would allow efficient human to human transmission of the virus. Ten years after the strain first appeared in humans, it has killed just 191 people.”

I was going to say to Mr Delamothe that the point is that H5N1 is a Bird virus and is NOT supposed to be killing any people. Not even a single human being should be killed by a Bird virus. I was then going to show the slow but steady growth of the number of victims and the spread of the virus over the last few years from the east to the West.

I was going to remind him that it is the very public concern for the growing number of the Bird-Flu outbreaks, that has started to see better practices of managing poultry at the Poultry Factory Farms.

There was a lot more I was going to point out to Mr Delamothe.

However, with the outbreaks of the H5N1 virus in Germany and France this week, in addition to many other countries that have been afflicted with the Bird-Flu virus for some time now, there does not seem to be any need for any one to argue this point with Mr Delamothe.

I would like to ask Mr Tony Delamothe only this.

In view of the events this week, can he guaranty that avian flu is something that DOES NOT remain an urgent concern?

If not, then I wonder if he has the courage to apologise for his remarks in that article in the British Medical Journal now.

How about it Mr Delamothe?

By the way, speaking of- helping doctors make better decisions- I personally recall the roll of the BMJ and the Medical Establishment, in keeping the sales of the vastly expensive peptic ulcers medicines, going for years after Drs Marshall and Warren showed that the cause of the disease was a bacterium that lived in stomachs and that the disease could be cured with simple inexpensive antibiotics.

I remember all kinds of articles all over the place by “experts”, dismissing the notion outright that a living organism could survive in such a hostile environment as the stomach. The stomach juices are so acidic, they said, that no living organism could survive in such a hostile environment! 

Here is the full article from the British Medical Journal, which is of course, always- helping doctors make better decisions.

 http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/full/334/7608/0

Bird-Flu in France, so French Cats & Dogs forbidden to run loose!

The French Agriculture Ministry announced Tuesday, July 3, 2007 that three young swans have been found dead in a pond in Assenoncourt, in the Moselle region in the Eastern France and are being tested for bird flu.

Results of the tests were expected Thursday.

Meanwhile, a control zone of about one kilometer (0.6 miles) was set up around the pond in Assenoncourt, where the swans were found, to look out for  any more dead wild birds.

Within the special containment area of the control zone, captive birds were ordered confined and cats and dogs forbidden to run loose…. ?????

What? Cats and Dogs forbidden to run loose????

Well, if these were German Cats, they could well obey such an order, but French Cats. No chance!

Bird-Flu in France, so French Cats & Dogs forbidden to run loose!

The French Agriculture Ministry announced Tuesday, July 3, 2007 that three young swans have been found dead in a pond in Assenoncourt, in the Moselle region in the Eastern France and are being tested for bird flu.

Results of the tests were expected Thursday.

Meanwhile, a control zone of about one kilometer (0.6 miles) was set up around the pond in Assenoncourt, where the swans were found, to look out for  any more dead wild birds.

Within the special containment area of the control zone, captive birds were ordered confined and cats and dogs forbidden to run loose…. ?????

What? Cats and Dogs forbidden to run loose????

Well, if these were German Cats, they could well obey such an order, but French Cats. No chance!

Photo Cover- THE CAT’S MEOW

I know this not a matter for a joke, but there seem to be more and more of these really nutty decisions taken by the authorities all over the world, in response to the increasing number of Bird-Flu outbreaks.  

Any way, here is the link to the news item in the IHT:

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/07/03/europe/EU-GEN-France-Bird-Flu-Suspected.php