Spatial analysis of Bird-Flu in Indonesia

Thanks to Genetika21, (found in the Best Blogs section of www.birdflubreakingnews.com) here is a Spatial Risk Factor Analysis of Human Cases of H5N1 infections in Indonesia, along with figures 1 to 8 below, showing graphic depictions of the same.

The study has found some interesting facts, including:

Most people infected with H5N1 virus lived in the West of Java, more specifically in or around the capital Jakarta.

Human population density is not a risk factor for human H5N1 infections.

Poultry density is very likely a risk factor for human H5N1 infections, but further study is needed to confirm this hypothesis.

Most poultry, commercial and backyard, were also found in the greater Jakarta area, but not in Jakarta city itself.

(The contradictory results of low poultry densities in Jakarta city with a high number of human cases can be explained by the transportation of large number of live (infected) poultry into Jakarta markets.)

The study also showed a lack of association between H5N1 infection in humans and HPAI in poultry.

This was explained by:

A) an effective human disease surveillance system and a less effective animal disease surveillance system. HPAI in poultry is often investigated after the reporting and confirmation of disease in humans. Due to the time gap, disease in poultry is at this stage anecdotal and cannot be confirmed by diagnostic tests.

B) Many people get infected not from contact with their own poultry but by buying infected poultry meat at markets relatively far from their homes. More spatial analysis is recommended for the future to identify other risk factors to help in more targeted preventions such as public awareness campaigns and risk based surveillance.

Figure 1: Indonesia in Asia

Figure 2: Human cases of H5N1 virus infections in Indonesia

Rata kanan

Figure 3: Human cases of H5N1 virus infections in Indonesia, on a background of the human population density per km2

 

Figure 4: Human cases of H5N1 virus infections on the island of Java, on a background of the human population density per km2

Figure 5: Human cases of H5N1 virus infections in Indonesia, projected on a background of the poultry density per km2 by province

Figure 6: Human cases of H5N1 virus infections and HPAI outbreaks in backyard poultry in Indonesia

Figure 7: Human cases of H5N1 virus infections and HPAI outbreaks in backyard poultry in West Indonesia

Figure 8: Human cases of H5N1 virus infections and HPAI outbreaks in backyard poultry on the islands of Java and Bali

Sources:

www.birdflubreakingnews.com (blogs section)

http://genetika21.blogspot.com

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