We are a Step Closer to a Human Pandemic Flu….

We are a Step Closer to a Human Pandemic Flu…. now that Avian flu can spread between humans

The mutation of the current Bird-Flu virus in to a virus that can cause Human to human infection has been the greatest fear for all who have been following this potentially killer virus.

There have been reports of several “clusters” of humans over the last few years, who have apparently been infected with H5N1, without any contact with infected birds or poultry.

However, in all of these cases, there has always been a doubt, a possibility that the infection had in fact directly or indirectly, passed on to the victims from infected birds.

If the H5N1 can be shown to pass from human to human, then it means that it has already mutated to a step closer to the dreaded Pandemic Flu.

It seems that our worse fears may have come true.

In the first systematic, statistical analysis of its kind, using a computerized disease-transmission model, infectious-disease-modeling experts at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center confirm that the avian influenza A (H5N1) virus in 2006 spread between a small number of people within a family in Indonesia.

The cluster contained a chain of infection that involved a 10-year-old boy who probably caught the virus from his 37-year-old aunt, who had been exposed to dead poultry and chicken feces, the presumed source of infection.

The boy then probably passed the virus to his father. The possibility that the boy infected his father was supported by genetic sequencing data.

Other person-to-person transmissions in the cluster are backed up with statistical data.

All but one of the flu victims died, and all had had sustained close contact with other ill family members prior to getting sick — a factor considered crucial for transmission of this particular flu strain.

In an attempt to contain the spread of the virus, the local health authorities eventually placed more than 50 surviving relatives and close contacts under voluntary quarantine and all, except for pregnant women and infants, received antiviral medication as a precaution.

The findings, by biostatistician Ira M. Longini Jr., Ph.D., and colleagues, appear online and will be published in the Sept. 1 print edition of Emerging Infectious Diseases, a journal of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“The containment strategy was implemented late in the game, so it could have been just luck that the virus burned out,” Longini said.

“It went two generations and then just stopped, but it could have gotten out of control.

The world really may have dodged a bullet with that one, and the next time we might not be so lucky,” he said.

Should a strain of avian flu acquire the ability to cause sustained human-to-human transmission, the results could be catastrophic, Longini said.

“If not contained, the outbreak could spread worldwide through the global transportation network faster than the appropriate vaccine supply could be made available. That’s why it’s so important to ascertain whether human-to-human transmission is happening as well as the virulence of the strain.”

Sources & Credits:





One Response

  1. H5N1 bird flu: Spread by drinking water
    Risk evaluations of the German authorities BfR/FLI and UBA are fundamentally wrong. The lethal H5N1 bird flu virus will be transferred to humans via drinking water as with the birds.
    Recent research results must worry: So far the virus had to reach the bronchi and the lungs of humans in order to infect man. Now in Indonesia it infects the upper respiratory system (mucous membranes of the throat and mucous membranes of the nose e.g. when drinking and probably also the conjunctiva of the eyes as well as the eardrum e.g. at showering).
    In three cases (Viet Nam, Thailand) stomach and intestine by the H5N1 Virus were stricken, not however the bronchi and the lungs. The virus must have been thus orally taken up, e.g. when drinking contaminated water.
    Ground water in Germany used for drinking water is not so pure as the German authorities BfR/FLI and UBA wrong insist. The performance of the drinking water processing plants to eliminate viruses in Germany regularly does not meet the requirements of the WHO and the USA. The performance of flocculation and filtration to eliminate viruses from surface water reaches maximally 99.5%. The WHO Drinking Water Guidelines (2004) demands 99.9999% to 99.999999%. The ventilation and high-speed filtration from groundwater to eliminate iron and manganese do not eliminate any viruses. The US Ground Water Rule requires 99.99%. Conventional disinfection procedures by chlorine are poor, because viruses are chlorine tolerant and occur in the raw water not in suspension, but embedded in particles or in biofilm and therefore by chlorine cannot be achieved.
    Contact: soddemann-aachen@t-online.de

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: